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Week 3: The Evolution of Nuclear
Defense Strategy and the Early Cold War
Week 3 Study Guide
Terms/People/Events:
John von Neumann George F. Kennan Bernard Brodie Marshall Plan Edward Teller Truman Doctrine Harry Truman NATO Game Theory Berlin Airlift Minimax theorem Containment Deterrence Iron Curtain Massive Retaliation NSC- SAC Berlin Wall SIOP Douglas McArthur 38th Parallel Sputnik 1 General Curtis LeMay Henry Kissinger Proxy Wars Warsaw Pact
Questions to ponder:
- From 1945 until roughly 1960, what were the most important ideas/people that influenced Cold War defense strategy?
- Which events in Europe and Eastern Asia increased atomic anxiety for Americans in this period?
- Make an argument: Did atomic weapons influence Cold War diplomacy, or was Cold War diplomacy the impetus for an increasing nuclear arsenal?
I. Scale and Scope of Atomic Weapons
In Scale:
Increased in yield, from KILOTONS to MEGATONS
- Kilotons = 1,000 tons of TNT explosive power
- Hiroshima-sized bomb = 1.5 miles
- Megatons = 1,000,000 tons of TNT explosive power
- 50 megatons = 40 mile blast
In Scope: Weapon delivery systems diversified as well.
Tactical – Like the Atomic Cannon (Albuquerque); battlefield.
Strategic – Megatons, ICBMs and Long range missiles targeted at cities.
Different delivery systems (bombs, larger bombs, missiles, shot out of cannons, submarines, ICBMs, etc…)
Winston Churchill believed that in the nuclear age: “safety will be the sturdy child of terror, and survival the twin brother of annihilation.”
In short, Byrnes and Churchill are positive about the bomb and its role in diplomacy
Walter Lippmann is less confident:
- What use are nuclear bombs in European theater?
- Kill too many innocent people.
- Might not even really hurt masses of Russian forces.
- Would leave Europe a wasteland
Post-War bombs were too big and too few to be effective
General Curtis LeMay
- Commanded Japanese firebombing during WWII
-Post-war, Head of Strategic Air Command, or SAC
- Wants SAC to be able to deliver 80% of U.S. arsenal at any given time
Shot Mike, Operation Ivy, Eniwetok atoll, 10 megatons, 1 st^ Hydrogen bomb, November 1, 1952
Summary:
- Scientists had failed in their push for international control
- Debate over scale and scope of nuclear weapons
- Some are for, others against
- Arms race begins to escalate between the Superpowers
- With weapons so destructive, what is their role in military action or within (By 1952, it was starting to look like “none”) diplomacy?
II. A Workable Nuclear Strategy
- Pronounced “Von Noi-man”
- Hungarian
- Worked on the Manhattan project alongside Neils Bohr and J. Robert Oppenheimer.
- He not only helped to create the bomb, but also to create nuclear defense strategy; “Game Theory.”
John von Neumann with Oskar Morgenstern
In 1944 von Neumann teamed with Oskar Morgenstern to publish Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, the world’s introduction to game theory.
At different points, both LeMay and von Neumann proposed to their presidents pre-emptive strikes against the Soviet Union
Thomas Schelling
-RAND
- Economist (Won Nobel in 2005)
- Fascinated with “accidental war”
- War could come without deliberate decision, especially because speed and haste are so vital to nuclear defense.
DETERRENCE
Deterrence is a product of GAME THEORY
- Destruction must occur for both parties to deter attack
- Destruction must be equal (symmetry)
- Increases or decreases in weaponry must maintain PARITY
Failsafe
III. The Cold War, part 1
The Truman Doctrine
- signed March 12, 1947
- 1 st^ concrete pronouncement of CONTIANMENT policies.
- America will go anywhere to stop the spread of Communism to free countries.
- The Marshall Plan offers $13 billion in economic recovery money to France, Germany, etc. between 1948 and 1952
In 1947, George F. Kennan, a young diplomat and Soviet specialist, drafts a “LONG TELEGRAM” to the state department.
- CONTAINMENT
- Assumes that the U.S.S.R. aims to expand communism around the world.
- It is vital that the United States stand firm against the designs of the U.S.S.R.
Germany becomes the first major focal point of Cold War tensions
NSC - 68
- Not to negotiate with Kremlin until in a position of power
- Develop HYDROGEN BOMBS
- Expand conventional forces so atomic war is not necessary
- Increase taxes to pay for it
- Mobilize U.S. society; “sacrifice”, “unity”
- Make powerful anti-communist alliances
- Court the Russian people to our way of life
