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The Power of Intuition and Rapid Cognition: Thin-Slicing and Unconscious Decision Making, Study notes of Decision Making

The role of intuition and rapid cognition in decision making, focusing on the concept of thin-slicing and the adaptive unconscious. various studies that demonstrate the accuracy of quick judgments and the importance of experience in identifying patterns. It also touches upon the impact of factors like physician demeanor on legal outcomes.

What you will learn

  • How does the adaptive unconscious influence decision making?
  • What is the significance of the Millennium Challenge in understanding rapid cognition?
  • What is thin-slicing and how does it contribute to rapid cognition?
  • How does physician demeanor impact legal outcomes?
  • What role does experience play in thin-slicing?

Typology: Study notes

2021/2022

Uploaded on 09/12/2022

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Blink: The power of thinking
without thinking
Rapid Cognition
Author: Malcolm Gladwell
Author: Blink
Author: The Tipping
Point
Writer for the New
Yorker
One of Time
Magazine’s 100 most
influential people
Canadian!
Warning for this info:
oversimplified
Story of the day
The statue that didn’t look
right…
Kouros: Statue of a nude
male youth (left leg forward,
arms at side), only about 200
in existence, most are
recovered badly damaged or
in fragments (Greek origin)
Kouros
In 1983, an art dealer claimed he had a
perfectly preserved Kouros which he tried
to sell to the J. Paul Getty museum for 10
million dollars
The museum proceeds slowly, running
multiple tests on the kouros
Kouros
Statue was made of dolomite marble and
was covered by a layer of
calcite…important because dolomite turns
into calcite over the course of hundreds or
thousands of years…didn’t appear to be a
contemporary fake
The kouros was purchased by the
museum after a 14 month investigation
Problem:
The statue didn’t look right
One art historian first noted this while staring at the
fingernails of the statue but couldn’t articulate the
problem
An expert on Greek sculpture also felt it was fake the
moment she saw it but wasn’t sure why
A former museum director noted that his first thought
upon seeing the statue was “fresh”, not the expected
reaction to a 2000 year old statue
No one could articulate the problem, every one of these
experts, however, had an instinctive sense that the
statue was a fake
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Download The Power of Intuition and Rapid Cognition: Thin-Slicing and Unconscious Decision Making and more Study notes Decision Making in PDF only on Docsity!

Blink: The power of thinking

without thinking

Rapid Cognition

Author: Malcolm Gladwell

  • Author: Blink
  • Author: The Tipping Point
  • Writer for the New Yorker
  • One of Time Magazine’s 100 most influential people
  • Canadian!
  • Warning for this info: oversimplified

Story of the day

  • The statue that didn’t look right…
  • Kouros: Statue of a nude male youth (left leg forward, arms at side), only about 200 in existence, most are recovered badly damaged or in fragments (Greek origin)

Kouros

  • In 1983, an art dealer claimed he had a perfectly preserved Kouros which he tried to sell to the J. Paul Getty museum for 10 million dollars
  • The museum proceeds slowly, running multiple tests on the kouros

Kouros

  • Statue was made of dolomite marble and was covered by a layer of calcite…important because dolomite turns into calcite over the course of hundreds or thousands of years…didn’t appear to be a contemporary fake
  • The kouros was purchased by the museum after a 14 month investigation

Problem:

  • The statue didn’t look right
  • One art historian first noted this while staring at the fingernails of the statue but couldn’t articulate the problem
  • An expert on Greek sculpture also felt it was fake the moment she saw it but wasn’t sure why
  • A former museum director noted that his first thought upon seeing the statue was “fresh”, not the expected reaction to a 2000 year old statue
  • No one could articulate the problem, every one of these experts, however, had an instinctive sense that the statue was a fake
  • The statue was sent to Athens to be investigated by the foremost sculpture experts
  • Every expert thought something was wrong on first glance but couldn’t articulate why
  • One expert noted that on first glance, he felt “intuitive repulsion”
  • Still, all scientific tests on the authenticity of the statue checked out - Soon, however, the case falls apart…the authenticity of documents called into question (postal code), incredibly careful examination showed that the design of the kouros mimicked several different styles and time periods - Later analyses showed that you could age the surface of dolomite marble using a potato mold - Statue turned out to be a modern forgery - None of this would have been discovered in the absence of “intuitive repulsion” that occurred in many the first moment they glanced at the statue

Mother always told us…

  • Haste makes waste
  • Look before you leap
  • Stop and think
  • Don’t judge a book by it’s cover
  • We’re taught that we’re better off gathering as much information as possible and spending as much time deliberating as possible…but is it the case that doing so is actually a bad idea?

An example

  • Picture a gambling game in which you are faced with 4 decks…two red and two blue
  • Each card in each deck either wins you money or costs you money, your task is to maximize winnings and minimize losings

An example

  • What you’re not told: the red decks are a minefield…high rewards but when you lose you lose big
  • The only way to win is by taking cards from the blue decks, steady payouts, low penalties
  • How long will it take you to figure that out?
    • Most people figure out how to play after turning over 50 cards but can’t articulate the rules
    • After 80 cards, you’ve figured out the game and can explain why to avoid certain decks
    • This makes sense, it’s learning…we have experiences, think them through, and draw conclusions
    • What if we measure knowledge in a different way though (similar to implicit learning)

How rapid cognition applies

  • Decision making
  • Attention
  • Automaticity
  • Expertise

Keep in mind…

  • …our unconscious is powerful, but fallible, it can be thrown off, our instinctive reactions can go awry
  • Normally when this happens though, there’s a reason

Thin slicing: a little knowledge goes

a long way

  • John Gottman, Washington University
  • Marital stability and relationship analysis
  • Claims to be able to assess the likelihood of divorce just by watching brief interactions - Couples seated on chairs facing each other with electrodes and sensors clipped to their fingers and ears (measures heart rate, skin temperature, sweat) - Chairs are motion sensitive to determine how much people move around - Videotape interactions in which couple is asked to talk about a contentious issue from their marriage

What can be learned in 15

minutes?

  • Can you tell if someone’s marriage is healthy/unhealthy when viewing them having a discussion about a single topic?
  • To really know a couple, wouldn’t you need to see them interact over time in different situations?
  • Gottman says no, 15 minutes is all it takes to predict future relationship success

SPAFF

  • Gottman analyzes all interactions with SPAFF (specific affect), a coding system with 20 categories corresponding to any emotion that may be expressed during the conversation (e.g. contempt is 2, anger is 7, defensiveness is 10)
  • Students code every second of every interaction
  • The coded information is then added to an equation that also factors in the data from the electrodes and sensors

How much can you tell from the

data?

  • If you look at one hour of interaction, ability to predict whether the couple will still be together in 15 years is 95%
  • If you look at 15 minutes, can still predict with up to 90% accuracy
  • Even after viewing only 3 minutes, your ability to predict marriage stability is quite high
  • How can one be so accurate with little information?

Thin-slicing

  • A critical aspect of rapid cognition
  • Thin-slicing is the ability of our unconscious to find patterns in situations and behaviors based on narrow slices of experience
  • When our unconscious thin-slices, it is doing an automated, accelerated, unconscious version of what Gottman does with his videotapes and calculations

Thin slicing…

  • …comes about due to expertise
  • What Gottman is able to do comes about due to his years of experience coding tapes
  • Claims he can now here couples discuss things over dinner and know whether or not they’ll make it
  • Our unconscious is able to thin slice for the same reason, lots of experience with things makes them automatic (like driving a car)

Expertise

  • As people become experienced at coding SPAFF, patterns of behavior jump out that wouldn’t be perceived otherwise (e.g., eye rolling, word choices, yes-but, tone)
  • What is actually being measured is positive and negative emotion independent of what is said…interactions that appear positive can actually be very negative

Expertise

  • As people become experienced at coding SPAFF, patterns of behavior jump out that wouldn’t be perceived otherwise (e.g., eye rolling, word choices, yes-but, tone)
  • What is actually being measured is positive and negative emotion independent of what is said…interactions that appear positive can actually be very negative

What exactly is our unconscious

basing it’s decision on?

  • Fists – distinctive patterns
  • A fist is a term used in Morse code, even though dots and dashes are standard, everyone has their own specific fist – dots and dashes are formed with various spacing and rhythm for each individual

How does everyone do

  • Friends describe us accurately
  • How about strangers:
    • Not good at determining extraversion (really need to interact with someone to determine this)
    • Slightly less better than friends at determining agreeableness (also probably need to interact with someone)
    • For the other three scales though (conscientiousness, emotional stability, openness to experience), strangers are actually more accurate than friends
    • Overall, strangers rate us better than our friends do
    • This is another example of thin-slicing

What can a bedroom tell you?

  • Three kinds of clues about personality
    • Deliberate expressions of how we’d like to be viewed by the world (e.g., framed degree)
    • Behavioural residue: inadvertent clues such as dirty laundry or alphabetized CD collection
    • Thought and feeling regulators: scented candles, decorative pillows

More importantly, what information

do you not get from a bedroom?

  • When you meet someone face to face a number of confusing, complicated, and irrelevant pieces of information can be obtained which mess up your judgment (e.g., if you met a football player who was a philosopher, could you get by the dumb jock bias…what if you just saw his bookcase?) - People aren’t very good at being objective about their own personality, they may lie, so we ask questions to get around this rather than straightforward questions (e.g. what is your marriage like) - Strangers can cut through this by simply observing your room, Gottman cuts through this by examining positive/negative nature of interactions independent of content of interactions

Yet another example

  • Imagine you work for an insurance company that sells medical malpractice protection…it is your job to determine which physicians are most likely to be sued….do you - A) examine each physicians’ training and credentials, analyze past performance for errors - B) Listen in on brief snippets between each doctor and his/her patient

Why people sue

  • Often times shoddy medical care goes unpunished, people sue because of shoddy medical care plus something else
  • Physician demeanor: physicians who take more time answering questions in a friendly/gentle tone are rarely sued, those who are rushed, blunt, or unclear, are often sued

Levinson et al., 1997

  • What differentiates surgeons who have never been sued relative to those who have been sued twice or more?
  • Surgeons who have never been sued…
    • Spend about 3 minutes more with each patient
    • More likely to make orienting comments (first I’ll do this, then that)
    • More likely to engage in active listening
    • Importantly, however, no difference in quality of information/care given by those who have been sued relative to those who have not

Ambady et al., 2002

  • Took two 10-second clips of interactions between physicians and patients
  • Content filtered the clips to remove ability to recognize individual words, but intonation, pitch, and rhythm are preserved

Ambady et al., 2002

  • Subjects asked to rate each clip for warth, hostility, dominance, and anxiousness
  • From those ratings you can predict, with a high probability, who will be sued

Thin slicing

  • Related to other concepts
    • Court sense in basketball
    • Love at first sight
    • Coup d’oeil in the military (power of the glance)
    • “I knew the moment I saw him/her…”
    • Internet dating, speed dating

The secret life of snap decisions

  • Vic Braden, former professional tennis player and top tennis coach
  • While watching tennis matches, knows instantly when a player is about to double fault
  • Has no idea why he knows this even though he can correctly call out double faults almost every time they are about to happen (16 out of 17 over the course of one weekend)

Expertise

  • Braden has become so expert at picking up the subtle nuances of tennis he has this knowledge but is frustrated that he can’t verbalize why
  • What does this tell us about snap judgments? - They are almost entirely unconscious (e.g. the gambling experiment where people learn about the red decks way before they are consciously aware that they learned)

Works for other behaviours also

  • Sentence test has words related to either being rude (aggressive, bold, rude, bother, disturb) or polite (respect, considerate, patiently, yield, polite)
  • After task, subjects are asked to walk down the hall and get the experimenter who is engaged in a conversation with someone else
  • Those primed to be rude interrupted around 5 minutes into the conversation
  • Those primed to be polite never interrupted 82% of the time (10 minute max)

Related findings

  • Subjects asked to answer 42 Trivial Pursuit questions
  • Prior to this, half of all subjects are asked to think about what it would mean to be a professor and write down everything that came to mind
  • Other half of subjects were asked to think about soccer hooligans
  • “Professor” group outperforms “hooligan” group on trivia questions (56% vs. 42% correct)

Steele & Aronson

  • Subjects: black college students
  • Test: 20 questions drawn from the GRE
  • Prior to the GRE questions, half of all subjects are asked to identify race (primes stereotypes of African Americans?)
  • People asked about their race do half as well as subjects who weren’t
  • All subjects indicated that it hadn’t bothered them to be asked about their race pre-test
  • In all of these examples people have no idea the prime is influencing them

Free will?

  • Is free will an illusion? The results suggest that much of the time we operate on autopilot and we’re influenced by far more variables than we could imagine
  • Is there an advantage to operating like this?

Free will?

  • Yes, we’re hardwired to perform optimally across environments, if we carefully analyzed everything around us we’d never get anything done…your unconscious picks up on clues about the environment and tells you how to act accordingly so you needn’t waste time/resources…unconscious is like a mental valet

What if our unconscious didn’t act

this way?

  • Damasio has studied a patient with damage to the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (area critical to decision making)
  • Highly intelligent, high functioning individual who lacks judgment
  • Takes about 30 minutes to decide between two potential dates for an appointment (considers previous engagements, proximity to other engagements, weather, etc.)

Gambling experiment

  • When this patient does the red deck/blue deck experiment he learns the same as everyone else but don’t show any of the physiological symptoms early on (e.g. sweaty palms)
  • Can’t verbalize at any point why the blue deck is better either
  • Lacks the same mental valet the rest of it has and it affects performance

The Warren Harding Error (tall dark

and handsome)

  • In 1899, Harding was a senator in Ohio who was met and befriended by political advisor Harry Daugherty
  • Daugherty’s initial impression was that Harding would make a good president (based on this looks, tall, chiseled, handsome)
  • Many others agreed, thought he looked noble (Roman)

The Warren Harding Error (tall dark

and handsome)

  • Problem: Harding was not very intelligent (pompous and not particularly well spoken), spent most of his time playing poker and golf, and had a voracious sexual appetite that got him into a fair amount of political trouble

He looked like a presidential

candidate

  • Despite his shortcomings, he was continuously pushed up the political ladder based on his look
  • Unfortunately, Harding is considered on of the worst presidents in American history
  • This is the dark and unfortunate side of thin slicing

The dark side of thin slicing

  • Though thin slicing can be helpful, it must also be acknowledged that it is not infallible
  • Thin slicing is at the root of most prejudice/discrimination
  • It’s why picking a job candidate is difficult and why sometimes, very mediocre people end up in positions of enormous responsibility

The dark side of thin slicing

  • In order to take rapid cognition seriously, we need to accept the fact that in some situations, rapid cognition leads us astray
  • Numerous researchers have begun examining these unconscious/implicit associations which influence our beliefs behaviour

Another example

White or good Black or bad _________ Hurt ___________ _________ Evil ___________ _________ Glorious ___________


_________ Wonderful ___________ _________ Mean ___________


Racism?

  • More than 80% of those tested have pro-white associations
  • Even if you don’t feel as though you are prejudiced, there is a strong inclination for black to be associated with bad on this test
  • Our attitudes towards race/gender operates on two levels - 1) conscious – what we choose to believe, stated values - 2) unconscious – immediate, automatic associations that express themselves before we have time to think

What does this mean?

  • Unconscious attitudes may be completely inconsistent with our stated conscious values
  • Most African Americans that take this test (more than 50%) have more pro-white associations than pro-black associations
  • You don’t choose to make positive associations with the dominant group, but you’re mostly acquired to (influence of society, media, etc.)

IAT

  • More than just an abstract measure of attitudes, a predictor of how we would act in spontaneous situations
  • Example, walking down a dark alley at night

IAT

  • Other interesting related findings: tall people enact positive associations - Fortune 500 CEOs tend to be 2-3 inches taller on average than the general population
  • Could this be one of the reasons that there are fewer women/minorities in positions of power?
  • Note, this is not a measure of deliberate prejudice, it is unconscious bias that is difficult to overcome

Career guidance for a thin slicer

  • Car salesman – customers vary from being insecure and nervous to knowledgeable and confident to clueless…salesmen needs to determine which it is quickly to determine sales approach
  • To successfully do this though, you need to constantly make snap judgments while simultaneously overriding stereotypes based on customer appearance

How does race affect car price?

  • Ayres, 2001
  • Sends a number of confederates to car dealerships, all told to dress the same and interact the same, only thing that differs is race
  • When an interest is expressed in buying a car by a young college educated professional, does race matter?

How does race affect car price?

  • Initial offer: white men ($725 above invoice), white women ($935 above invoice), black women ($1195 above invoice), black men ($1687) above invoice
  • Popular explanation: black women and men are being viewed as stupid/naïve and are being suckered
  • This doesn’t hold as all confederates present themselves as college age and successful, might instead be something unconscious

Can we overcome these biases?

  • Think of Martin Luther King
  • By preemptively associating positive things with African American, the commonly observed result on the IAT can be changed/reversed
  • We can change our first impressions/instincts via top down control, we need to know when to do this though and when no to

Hey, let’s make fun of the US army!

  • What do you suppose is better? Millions of dollars worth of technology and report and research….or rapid cognition?
  • Meet Paul Van Riper

Van Riper

  • Incredibly well respected military veteran
  • Multiple tours of Vietnam in a variety of capacities
  • Known for his unorthodox methods
  • In 2000, Van Riper (retired) was approached by the Pentagon to take part in the largest and most expensive (cost 250 million dollars) War Games ever, Millennium Challenge ‘

The scenario

  • A rogue military commander has broken away from his government somewhere in the Persian Gulf and is threatening to engulf the entire region in war. He has a considerable power base from strong religious and ethnic loyalties, and he is harboring and sponsoring four different terrorist organizations…he is virulently anti-American
  • Paul Van Riper was asked to play the rogue commander

Millennium challenge

  • Not just a battle between armies, a battle between philosophies
  • On Day 1, blue team poured tens of thousands of soldiers in the Persian Gulf, parked an aircraft carrier battle group outside the red team’s home country, and issued an eight-point ultimatum to Van Riper, #8 being to surrender
  • Blue team acted with confidence because the Operational Net Assessment matrixes told them the red team’s vulnerabilities

Millennium challenge

  • Unfortunately for the blue team, Van Riper didn’t act in the predicted manner
  • Blue team knocked out the red team’s microwave towers and fiber optic lines on the assumption that Red Team would have to use satellite communications and cell phones (which blue team could monitor)
  • Van Riper, not being an idiot, used couriers on motorcycles and hidden messages inside prayers

Millennium challenge

  • To get airplanes off the airfield, Van Riper used an old WW2 strategy whereby he used lighting systems for signals
  • Van Riper was not intimidated and blue team did not know how to react
  • On Day 2, Van Riper put a small fleet of boats in the Persian Gulf to track the ships of the invading blue team

Millennium challenge

  • Then, without warning, he bombarded them in an hour long assault with a ton of cruise missiles
  • When the attack ended, sixteen American ships were sunk…had this been a real war, 20000 Americans would have been killed before their army ever fired a shot
  • How to explain the defeat of the blue team with all their technology?

The structure of spontaneity

  • To answer this question, consider another group of people, about as far away from the military as you can get…improv troupes
  • Improv troupes perform a series of scenes/plays which can last up to an hour based on suggestions of the audience
  • It’s unrehearsed, completely spontaneous and oftentimes, very funny
  • To the uninitiated, this process seems terrifying, but in actuality, it isn’t nearly as random and chaotic as it appears

The structure of spontaneity

  • Improv troupes actually rehearse to an insane degree, though they can’t rehearse specific ideas, they can rehearse general rules that will make improv proceed as smoothly as possible
  • It’s like basketball…basketball is an intricate high speed game filled with split second, spontaneous decisions
  • That spontaneity is possible only when everyone engages in hours of repetitive and structured practice

Structure

  • This is the key to improv as well as understanding why red team did well in Millennium challenge
  • SPONTANEITY ISN’T RANDOM!
  • How good people’s decisions are under the fast-moving, high-stress conditions of rapid cognition is a function of training and rules and rehearsal

Improv

  • Certain rules make improv possible
  • The most important rule is the idea of agreement…characters have to accept everything that happens to them

An example of a bad improv scene

  • A: I’m having trouble with my leg
  • B: I’m afraid I’ll have to amputate
  • A: You can’t do that, Doctor
  • B: Why not?
  • A: Because I’m rather attached to it
  • B: Come on, man
  • A: I’ve got this growth on my arm to
  • In this example, Actor A violated the rule of agreement (“You can’t do that Doctor”)
  • Joke was funny, scene wasn’t

An example of a good improv scene

  • A: Augh!
  • B: Whatever is it, man?
  • A: It’s my leg, Doctor
  • B: This looks nasty, I shall have to amputate
  • A: It’s the one you amputated last time
  • B: You mean you’ve got pain in your wooden leg?
  • A: Yes, Doctor
  • B: You know what this means?
  • A: Not woodworm?
  • B: Yes, we’ll have to remove it before it spreads to the rest of you
  • (A’s chair collapses)
  • A: My God, it’s spreading to the furniture
  • This scene works because the rule of agreement is followed

Improv

  • In improv, the humor arises out of how steadfastly the participants adhere to the rule that no suggestion can be denied
  • By following rules, one creates the conditions for successful spontaneity

How this applies to Van Riper

  • Van Riper instructed the red team to be “in command and out of control”
  • Overall guidance provided by Van Riper but the forces in the field do not depend on orders coming from the top
  • Rather than overwhelming his operatives with any of the technology blue team used, they used the wisdom, experience and good judgment of people on his team

Here’s another

  • A giant inverted steel pyramid is perfectly balanced on its point. Any movement of the pyramid will cause it to topple over. Underneath the pyramid is a $ bill…how do you remove the bill without disturbing the pyramid?
  • Again, this is an insight puzzle

Schooler

  • Schooler ran an experiment with two groups…one group was asked to write down everything they could remember about how they were trying to solve the problem
  • People asked to explain themselves solved 30% fewer problems than those who weren’t
  • Forcing someone to write down there thoughts decreases their chance of having a flash of insight
  • With logic problems, explaining yourself helps, but with insight problems, this wrecks you

Interesting aside

  • If you force someone to take 10 seconds of “prep” time before they take a free throw, how do you think this affects - A) basketball amateurs - B) basketball professionals

Interesting related story

  • A fire department commander in Cleveland thought for a very long time that he had ESP
  • Reason: While attending to a fire in the back of a one-story house, the commander thought to himself “something is wrong”, ordered everyone out of the house and then moments later, the floor collapsed
  • When asked, however, the commander had absolutely no idea why he had ordered his men out of the house
  • Upon further questioning, it was discovered that the fire hadn’t behaved the way one would have expected (fire was in the basement, not the kitchen as had been thought)
  • Fire was hotter than expected, didn’t respond to water, and wasn’t as noisy as expected
  • All of the signs of danger were there, but had the commander actually thought to stop and discuss these things with his men, they all would have died, fortunately his unconscious took over
  • During the Millennium challenge, this was the mistake the blue team made, stopping to discuss everything rather than just acting on instinct
  • They were so focused on mechanics they never considered things holistically
  • Interestingly, after their failure, rather than dumping their strategy, the Pentagon started the war game over (pretended everything that happened, didn’t), gave Van Riper’s superiors specific instructions how to act, and won the next day

When less is more

  • It’s not always the case that “less is more” relates only to our unconscious, sometimes it can also help in very tricky decision making contexts
  • Cook County hospital in Chicago is the real life inspiration for the series ER
  • Cook County is renowned for changing the manner in which heart attacks are diagnosed

Brendan Reilly

  • Took over Cook County when the place was at its worse…resources were stretched to the limit, the building was old and not up to code, there were no private rooms, just plywood dividers
  • At one point they trained a homeless man to do lab tests because no one else was available

The biggest problem

  • To Reilly, the biggest problem was the Emergency Department (few patients had health insurance)
  • Lines were down the hall, rooms were jammed, and at its peak, 250000 patients came through the ED each day
  • Biggest worry: patients who thought they were having heart attacks

Heart problems

  • These patients were the worst as they take up a lot of time and resources…the treatment protocol was long and elaborate and for the most part, inconclusive
  • Tests: blood pressure taken, doctor listens to the chest via stethoscope, a series of questions are asked (how long have you had pain, when/where does it hurt, cholesterol level, drugs, diabetes?)…a technician then administers an electrocardiogram (which doesn’t spot problems very readily)

Heart problems

  • Doctors take all this information, and estimate the likelihood a heart attack is occurring
  • Problem: this estimate is often not anywhere close to accurate (different doctors give different estimates and these often range from 0 to 100 in terms of overlap)

Why all the tests?

  • Doctors like to think that they are making reasoned judgments but they’re actually just guessing
  • People having an actual heart attack get sent home between 2 and 8% of the time, as a consequence, most doctors overcompensate and admit more people than they should