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POLS 581 Fall 2008: Statistical Analysis of Crosstabs, Probabilities, and Regression - Pro, Assignments of Political Science

Homework assignments for a graduate-level political science course (pols 581) focusing on statistical analysis. Topics include calculating expected frequencies, interpreting chi-square statistics, determining probabilities, analyzing residuals, and performing simple linear regression. Students are required to work through problems related to crosstabs, gun ownership, union households, and income, as well as birthrates and education.

Typology: Assignments

Pre 2010

Uploaded on 07/23/2009

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POLS 581 Homework 5
Fall 2008
This homework may be done by hand or turned in as a PDF. Show your work for all calculations.
1. Calculate the expected frequencies for the following crosstab:
White Respondents Black Respondents Total
Did Not Vote in 2004 188
Did Vote in 2004 750
Total 781 157 938
2. Given the following crosstab of diamonds by color, (a) interpret the 2 statistic. (b) What would be
P( and Red) if the two events were independent?
| Red
Diamond | No Yes | Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
No | 26 13 | 39
Yes | 0 13 | 13
-----------+----------------------+----------
Total | 26 26 | 52
Pearson chi2(1) = 17.3333
3. Assume that 12% of the American population is Black, 5% holds a PhD, and that the proportion of
Blacks who hold a PhD is 1 in 1000. (a) What proportion of the American population is Black and holds
a PhD? (b)
4. For the following table by factors, find the following probabilities:
(a) P(gun owner)
(b) P(union household)
(c) P(gun owner | union household)
(d) P(gun owner union household)
(e) If the two events were independent, what would be P(gun owner union household)?
(f) Are the two events independent according to probability theory?
(g) What does a chi-square test tell us about these two events?
Does R have a |
gun in his or | Anyone in HH belong
her home or | to labor union?
garage? | 0 No 1 Yes | Total
--------------+----------------------+----------
1 Yes | 337 86 | 423
5 No | 640 116 | 756
--------------+----------------------+----------
Total | 977 202 | 1,179
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POLS 581 Homework 5 Fall 2008 This homework may be done by hand or turned in as a PDF. Show your work for all calculations.

  1. Calculate the expected frequencies for the following crosstab: White Respondents Black Respondents Total Did Not Vote in 2004 188 Did Vote in 2004 750 Total 781 157 938
  2. Given the following crosstab of diamonds by color, (a) interpret the ^2 statistic. (b) What would be P( and Red) if the two events were independent? | Red Diamond | No Yes | Total -----------+----------------------+---------- No | 26 13 | 39 Yes | 0 13 | 13 -----------+----------------------+---------- Total | 26 26 | 52 Pearson chi2(1) = 17.
  3. Assume that 12% of the American population is Black, 5% holds a PhD, and that the proportion of Blacks who hold a PhD is 1 in 1000. (a) What proportion of the American population is Black and holds a PhD? (b)
  4. For the following table by factors, find the following probabilities: (a) P(gun owner) (b) P(union household) (c) P(gun owner | union household) (d) P(gun owner  union household) (e) If the two events were independent, what would be P(gun owner  union household)? (f) Are the two events independent according to probability theory? (g) What does a chi-square test tell us about these two events? Does R have a | gun in his or | Anyone in HH belong her home or | to labor union? garage? | 0 No 1 Yes | Total --------------+----------------------+---------- 1 Yes | 337 86 | 423 5 No | 640 116 | 756 --------------+----------------------+---------- Total | 977 202 | 1,

5a. What is the probability of getting Heads on two consecutive flips of the same fair coin? 5b. What is the probability of getting Heads on three consecutive flips of the same fair coin? 5c. You and a friend each flip a fair coin at the same time. (You flip a quarter; your friend flips a nickel.) What is the probability that each of you gets Tails?

  1. You have two data points for democracy and development. Country A has a democracy score of 9 and a development score of 5; country B has a democracy score of -8 and a development score of 7. Assuming that democracy is the dependent variable, what is the equation of the line between these two points?
  2. (from Hanushek and Jackson) The accompanying table gives data on birthrates, income, and racial composition of geographic regions in the United States. Region Live births per 1000 population Per capita income ($) Percent black New England 22.5 3998 3. Middle Atlantic 21.5 4193 10. East North Central 24.2 3928 9. West North Central 24.0 3492 4. South Atlantic 24.2 3304 20. East South Central 24.4 2724 20. West South Central 25.4 3122 15. Mountain 27.3 3267 2. Pacific 23.6 4134 5. (a) Estimate the model: BIRTHS = b 1 + b 2 INCOME + b 3 RACE. (b) What are the units for each of the estimated coefficients? (c) If the median income was measured in thousands of dollars instead of dollars, what would the new coefficient estimates of the model in part (a) be? (d) Calculate the residuals associated with the different regions. Does the pattern of these residuals suggest any other hypotheses about the determinants of birthrates?
  3. A regression between income (in thousands of dollars) and education (in years of schooling) finds the following estimates: INCOME = 1.6 + 1.3 EDUCATION. If average INCOME = 29 and average EDUCATION = 14, (a) what is the explained error for a person with 17 years of education making $53,000 per year? (b) What is the unexplained error for this same person?
  4. Using the 2004 National Election Study, (a) identify the three Feeling Thermometer measures that are most closely normal in their distribution. (b) Why is the Feeling Thermometer for illegal immigrants not normally distributed? (c) Generate a histogram overlaid with a normal distribution curve for the Feeling Thermometer that is the most normal in its distribution.